It’s hard not to notice the difference between the emotional rallies of Maria Corina Machado (MCM), Venezuela’s opposition leader and the dictator Maduro’s forced, loveless, joyless meetings. Size: people always measure size and the Venezuelan opposition have been comparing size for 25 years. “Mine certainly was much bigger than yours,” doctoring pictures, using first photoshop and now AI. But in the age of little iPhone videos it’s also hard not to notice the difference. MCM’s crowds are massive, Maduro’s, almost non-existent. Also, forget the fact that the government pays people to show up for theirs; after MCM’s rallies people are threatened and after the last one in Portuguesa a few people who were too outspoken were arrested, including part of MCM’s campaign team.
But it’s not really about size. If there are 10 million voters; even a march of 1 million, while impressive, is only 10%. The issue is energy, which is much harder to quantify. But it’s also hard not to notice that these MCM rallies have a twinge of a religious experience about them. People are weeping, they are screaming, they are running.
With Maduro they are sitting in chairs or standing around smoking while his charmless wife speaks through a wad of gum (or did her false teeth fall out?). They are no longer even trying.
MCM’s strategy seems to be to simply roll over the government. Like a tidal wave when it hits the shore and just pushes inward, overwhelming everything standing in its way. There is precedent for this; if you look at Serbia when the opposition just rolled Milosevic — after twenty years of war and violence and corruption the government just crumbled. It appears to me; the opposition is betting on a great crumbling.
Can the regime be toppled through the energy of one woman, powered by the delicately mixed potion of hope against despair which has caused such a chemical reaction as we’re seeing on Venezuela’s streets? Maybe. I’m certainly a fan.
There are moves and countermoves as well. The regime opens a tiny window for a primary, hubristically thinking it will fail. MCM wrests it wide open through the power of her personality and imposes herself on a population hungry for inspiration (and despite a calcified political class cynical and self-dealing who have fought her every way they could). The regime bans her; she chooses an alternative for the ballot while retaining leadership (I have been skeptical, but so far, she’s pulling it off). The opposition tries to fracture, again; she again holds it together through her electric energy and the love of the Venezuelan people for their would-be-liberator.
There are special politicians. It is said that when Bill Clinton entered a room, he made you feel like you were the only person there. (While, at the same time, it was said of Al Gore that every time he approached it was like the oxygen was sucked out leaving everyone choking.) Moves and counter-moves — the chess game of strategy (for the game to succeed) needs to be accompanied by a monumental personality. Especially in places as difficult as communist Venezuela. Normal politics won’t do; they are fine for the day-to-day humdrum of ordinary elections. But not for liberation movements.
MCM is the most gifted politician in Venezuela since Hugo Chavez (and one of the most gifted I’ve ever seen). This is why the regime hates her. She has a way of making every single person of her millions of supporters feel special, unique — irreplaceable. As if nothing could be done without you; as if the entire movement hangs on the spider web of your endorsement and support. And she has one special gift that is hard in politics in Latin America; she is known to be incorruptible and uncompromising. In a region exhausted by self-dealing and corruption, somebody clean is also somebody new. In fact, the only thing her detractors can throw at her is that she is a ‘liberty’ extremist: only full freedom from the regime will do.
Now what happens? The regime still has one tool, tried and true and steady. Violence. They have been using it selectively since Chavez came to power; sometimes more, sometimes less. Torture, assassination, forcing people to flight. Rolling up political prisoners (right now there are more than 400). If the regime is really threatened — if their control over power is in doubt — will they unleash a Bashar Al Assad style war? And will the soldiers — whose mothers have also had trouble finding food, and who are showing up at MCM rallies — follow orders to crack down? Like they did in Nicaragua in 2018 effectively ending any opposition but turning the state into North Korea of the hemisphere? Or will the military, too, crumble and the grunts join the rebellion. That is the question. Counter-moves — an amnesty? People can keep their stolen money as long as they leave forever? These are all strategies, counter-moves, the discussions around which are best done quietly.
What I do know, this is it. This is Venezuela’s last, best hope to be free. If this effort fails, there begins a dark night of Cuba 2.0. There’s a saying in Venezuela, “No hay mal que dure mil años ni cuerpo que lo resista (no evil last 1000 years, nor a body that can take it)”. Is this Venezuela’s freedom movement? I truly hope so.